Republican Ineptitude in Virginia

The Stupid Party Bombs Again

Here in Virginia, the political news Wednesday morning was the failure of the Virginia GOP, led by Governor Glenn Youngkin, to retain their majority in the House of Delegates or to flip the Virginia Senate, as they had hoped. Many commentators have chalked this up to what has been portrayed the Republicans’ extreme position on abortion. From my perch in Goochland County, in central Virginia, I observed the campaigning and the day-and-night barrage of Democrat ads warning that Youngkin and a GOP legislative majority were set on abolishing all abortion rights and jailing any woman who had an abortion. What I did not observe was any GOP response to those ads or any meaningful discussion of the abortion issue.

I claim no experience or expertise as a political consultant. But I have lived long enough and experienced enough of the ups-and-downs of life and human nature to be able to apply a little common sense to what I see around me. And in spite of my limited political experience, I do have some experience in looking at facts, analyzing them and related issues and then drawing logical conclusions. What that has allowed me to conclude is that with their flaccid to non-existent response to the Democrats blitz of’ “Be afraid, be very afraid” ads the Republicans cemented their hold on the label of “the stupid party” (h/t to Ann Coulter).

In fact, what Youngkin was proposing was a ban on abortions after 15 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest and where the mother’s live was at risk. What most people don’t understand (because no one told them) is that Youngkin’s position is actually more liberal than even what most European countries allow and that the Democrats’ desire to eliminate all limits on abortions up until the moment of birth is far outside the mainstream of what most U.S. voters prefer.

From the commercials that I saw on TV, the Democrats were sowing fear that if Youngkin had a majority in both chambers, he would abolish any right to an abortion, no exceptions.

The irreplaceable Professor Glenn Reynolds, he of Instapundit fame, has published an enlightening article in Newsweek on this. In it he says:

“When I tell my constitutional law students that most European laws resemble the Mississippi statute upheld in Dobbs v. Jackson (which banned abortion after 15 weeks but permitted it for essentially any reason up to then), they're surprised, having assumed that anything in Europe must be more liberal than in the United States. But that's not the case.

“In Germany, women who want an abortion face a mandatory three-day cooling-off and counseling period. More than 20 European nations—like Ireland, which recently liberalized its abortion laws—ban abortion after 12 weeks. In Britain, a woman named Carla Foster was recently sentenced to prison for procuring an abortion at 32-34 weeks.

“Sweden requires permission from the National Board of Health for a woman to obtain an abortion after the 18th week. Such permission is generally granted in cases of ill health on the part of the woman or the fetus. Abortions are illegal once the fetus is viable.”

In that same article, Prof. Reynolds notes, “Interestingly, that's what polls show most Americans support. A recent Rasmussen survey showed that 56 percent of Americans think that abortion should only be allowed during the first trimester of pregnancy, with 23 percent believing that abortion should be available throughout, and 21 percent not sure.” So according to Rasmussen, 56 percent of Americans support restrictions more restrictive than the Youngkin proposal.

Professor Reynolds’ observation about U.S. voters’ preferences is consistent with the results of a July 2023 Gallup poll showing that 55% of Americans believe that abortions should be not be legal during the second trimester, and that increases to 70% opposing abortions in the final trimester.

In short, Governor’s position on abortion is much closer to mainstream thinking, both in this country and even in Europe (which our “elites” constantly implore us to emulate). But The Stupid Party never responded to the barrage of fear-mongering ads with a campaign of their own pointing this out and calling out the up-until-the-moment-of-birth extreme pushed by many Democrats.

One local race appears to be representative of the statewide Republican approach. The contest to represent my own district, District 57 in the House of Delegates, should have been a Republican blow-out. But the Republican won only by the skin of his teeth.

District 57 spans parts of two counties, Henrico and Goochland. Henrico generally is a middle-class suburban community. Goochland is more rural but also has some historic properties, high-end homes and developments. It is generally considered to be more conservative than its neighbor, Henrico.

The GOP nominee was David Owen, a retired building contractor. His Democrat opponent was — literally — a porn star, one Susanna Gibson. Ms. Gibson and the Democrat establishment’s continued support of her were featured in one of my prior articles, here. The short version is that during the campaign she and her attorney husband were exposed as paid performers on a pornographic web site called “Chaturbate.”

Normally after her secret sex-for-money gig was exposed, one would think that support for Gibson would evaporate, and that Owen would be a shoe-in. But the Democrats stuck by her, and the Republicans ignored the issue. Owen may have wanted to take the high road, thinking that the public exposure would doom her campaign. But by the time the election rolled around a month-and-a-half later, my sense of the situation was that most voters were not even aware of the issue.

In the meantime, Gibson was flooding the airwaves (and YouTube and social media) with ads that emphasized three things: abortion, abortion and abortion. She took the approach favored by extreme Democrats: “MAGA Republicans” wanted a 100% ban on abortions; “a total abortion ban, no exceptions;” “women and doctors in jail;” even “women [are] facing the death penalty for having an abortion.”

Owen’s response? Crickets. His ads can best be described as pablum for the masses. He assured us that he was for bringing us together and better paying jobs. He wants better education and an end to divisive politics. No doubt he also supports motherhood and apple pie. His ads gave no details of how he would achieve these general goals, and nary a word in response to the tsunami of fear-mongering abortion ads that Gibson was running, including on Fox News during prime-time morning hours. Neither Owen nor anyone in his campaign gave any indication that they had the slightest inkling that abortion might be a key issue for thousands of suburban women who were being bombarded with Gibson’s ads. So, to my knowledge, he never responded to them or even attempted to discuss the issue. I should add here that I was told second-hand, that Owen claims that he wanted to counter Gibson’s abortion fear-mongering but was prevented from doing so by the Republican establishment, which controlled the purse strings. I have not been able to verify that.

Owen squeaked by with 51% of the vote. But it never should have been that close. And, in an ominous sign for Republicans, Gibson won suburban Henrico County. Only the more conservative Goochland County saved Owen’s bacon.

So, although Owen edged out an opponent that he should have handily defeated by a wide margin, I offer the story of the District 57 contest as an exemplar of how badly the Stupid Party handled the statewide campaign, particularly by not trying to inform the public about its stance on abortion. The statewide results were a disaster not just for the GOP but for the party nationally. The GOP’s loss of their majority in the House of Delegates and their failure to flip the Senate led the Wednesday morning national news shows. Until the Republicans get new leadership at all levels, as well as candidates and consultants who understand and are able to address that issue in a meaningful and intelligent way, I fear that they are in for more of the same.